Forty percent chance of rain means nothing to you
You cannot tell whether to bring a coat.
Courses
Start with three things you can do today
How to understand the weather forecast
Read a forecast and know why the weather changes.
Read the rain chance for a place and period, then compare average wind with gusts. If you want to understand the weather where you live, try Cadence. Describe your location and questions, then answer the setup questions to build your course. This is a suggested learning goal, and the outline is a possible direction rather than a fixed meteorology course.
Want new features first?
A starting goal
I want to understand the weather well enough to read a forecast properly and know why it changes. Explain pressure, fronts, humidity and why forecasts are sometimes wrong.
Change any word so it fits your situation. The course is built from what you type and a few setup questions.
Start today
Three things you can do before the course exists.
Useful on their own. The course is for when you want the whole skill, not just the first move.
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Give a rain percentage a place and a time
Invented US National Weather Service example: a 40% rain chance from noon to 6pm means a 40% chance of measurable rain at your location in that window. Does it promise 2.4 hours of rain? No. It does not tell you the duration, intensity or exact arrival time. Check your provider's definition and hourly forecast before comparing percentages.
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Read the wind direction, average and gust separately
Invented Met Office-style example: S, wind 20 km/h, gust 35 km/h. S means wind comes from the south. The average is 20; a gust is a brief stronger wind, not a steady 35. Now compare wind 20, gust 45. Which forecast has stronger gusts? The second, despite the same average. Met Office gust values cover the period until the next forecast time. Check your provider's symbol key and local official warnings before an outdoor plan.
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Treat pressure as a clue, then check the details
High pressure often brings more settled conditions; low pressure often brings cloud and unsettled weather. Neither guarantees a particular sky: high pressure can also trap fog or low cloud. On a forecast map, find the pressure pattern, then compare the local cloud, wind and rain forecast. Write one expectation and check it later. Use local official warnings for decisions about hazardous weather.
Sources: National Weather Service: what precipitation probability means; Met Office: high and low pressure, including exceptions; Met Office: reading forecast times, symbols and wind. Practical examples are starting points, not promised results.
Free to read first
Guides on the same skill.
- Best for
- Science & nature
- Prerequisites
- None. Bring the situation you have.
- Course length
- 7 to 30 lessons
- Pace
- Yours. One lesson at a time, as often as you like.
- Format
- Read it, or play the audio
- Access
- Available on the App Store and Google Play, with an optional early testing list
Before the course is built
Setup asks about your situation first.
Lesson 1 opens on the moment you describe, and the examples use your role. For this request, expect questions like these.
- Why do you want this: hobbies outdoors, curiosity, or being caught in the rain once too often?
- What confuses you: the symbols, the percentages, or the whole system?
- Do you have a climate in mind, or the general principles?
Right for now
If any of this sounds familiar, start here.
The forecast was wrong again
And you would like to know why.
You look at the sky and see sky
Others read it and you cannot.
Course arc
Where the course goes, in order.
Cadence writes the lessons for you, so the exact path follows your answers. This is the ground a course built from this sentence covers.
01 / 06Air, heat and pressure
How temperature and air pressure relate to weather patterns.
Fronts and systems
Why weather arrives in patterns.
Humidity, clouds and rain
How water moves through the sky.
Wind
Where it comes from and what it signals.
Forecasts
How they are made, what the percentages mean, and why they fail.
Reading the sky
Compare cloud observations with a local forecast, without treating the sky as a reliable warning system.
What changes
What you will be able to do, and what you will stop believing.
You will be able to
Understand the drivers
Explain pressure, fronts, humidity and wind, and how they produce weather.
Read a forecast
Practice identifying the location, time window and event behind a forecast.
Read the sky
Compare visible conditions with the forecast and identify what remains uncertain.
Ideas this course corrects
A dry afternoon proves a 40% rain forecast was wrong
A single dry outcome is compatible with a 40% forecast. Assessing probability forecasts needs many comparable forecasts and observations, not one afternoon.
Forty percent chance of rain means it will rain forty percent of the time
For a US National Weather Service point forecast, it describes the chance of measurable precipitation at that point within the stated period. Duration and intensity are separate questions.
Course questions
What to know before you start.
How to understand the weather forecast: what can I do today?
Give a rain percentage a place and a time. Invented US National Weather Service example: a 40% rain chance from noon to 6pm means a 40% chance of measurable rain at your location in that window. Does it promise 2.4 hours of rain? No. It does not tell you the duration, intensity or exact arrival time. Check your provider's definition and hourly forecast before comparing percentages. Read the wind direction, average and gust separately. Invented Met Office-style example: S, wind 20 km/h, gust 35 km/h. S means wind comes from the south. The average is 20; a gust is a brief stronger wind, not a steady 35. Now compare wind 20, gust 45. Which forecast has stronger gusts? The second, despite the same average. Met Office gust values cover the period until the next forecast time. Check your provider's symbol key and local official warnings before an outdoor plan. Treat pressure as a clue, then check the details. High pressure often brings more settled conditions; low pressure often brings cloud and unsettled weather. Neither guarantees a particular sky: high pressure can also trap fog or low cloud. On a forecast map, find the pressure pattern, then compare the local cloud, wind and rain forecast. Write one expectation and check it later. Use local official warnings for decisions about hazardous weather.
Is this a fixed course?
No. Cadence builds the course when you type the sentence and answer a few setup questions, so the lessons follow your situation. This page describes what a course built from this request covers. You see the whole path before Lesson 1.
Who is this course for?
Read the rain chance for a place and period, then compare average wind with gusts. If you want to understand the weather where you live, try Cadence. Describe your location and questions, then answer the setup questions to build your course. This is a suggested learning goal, and the outline is a possible direction rather than a fixed meteorology course. It sits under Science & nature in the Ideas & discovery part of the library.
Do I need any prior experience?
No. Setup asks what you already know and where you want to use it, and the course starts from there. Bring a real situation if you have one; the examples are built around it.
How long does it take?
Most courses run 7 to 30 lessons. The course length is sized to what you asked for. You set the pace: one lesson at a time, as often as you like. Lessons can be read or played as audio.
Does this course award a certificate or degree?
No. Cadence is for practical self-learning and does not award accredited degrees or professional certification.
Start today
Type it, answer a few questions, open Lesson 1.
A starting goal
I want to understand the weather well enough to read a forecast properly and know why it changes. Explain pressure, fronts, humidity and why forecasts are sometimes wrong.
Want new features first?